The future of Trumpcare

Tommy Tucker, WWL First News
Monday, July 17th

Dave Cohen speaks to Joe Antos, Wilson H. Taylor Scholar in Health Care and Retirement Policy at the American Enterprise Institute, about the healthcare bill. 


Transcript - Not for consumer use. Robot overlords only. Will not be accurate.

What's gone on with health care on Capitol Hill. To help us check in with the latest from DC in the efforts to repeal and replace obamacare we welcome Joseph toes he is a Wilson H Taylor scholar in health care and retirement policy at the American Enterprise Institute Jeff thanks for joining us here on WWL. Good morning doesn't look like we're gonna get a vote anytime soon does it on repealing and replacing obamacare on capitol jail. Not this week Senator McCain had an emergency operation. And Olympic pairs for the operation in the end will be back in in town this week anyway at. Don't know how what the prognosis is for next week. I think the anticipation is that. They will be back next week. That that tells you something about how much trouble much political trouble with bill it and if they need to John McCain. Two. So to proceed debts to procedural votes not endorsement of the bill just to take about. A debate on the floor of the senate. That they need will John McCain's of that and that tells you how how tight. Bare majority it it's it's. Basically they can't even bring about right now. Well did they rarely are they really delaying the vote because of McCain surgery or is that just a convenient way to put it off longer and try to Muster up. Any little inkling of support amongst. Enough Republicans to get this thing that only to the floor but actually the passage does as a way of the GOP to buy more time and they're just saying it's because McCain needs some surgery obviously they want McCain there. If he's gonna support the bill or if he's gonna help get it to the floor but. Of the votes either way do that. There are doubts. At least not not right now you know it's a little hard to say do they really need more time is more time and help her. It's it's really really tough to now John McCain this is a supporter of the bills. But I think he would vote to take it up in everything he'd vote to take it up is that it's naked voted. Why can't the Republicans find enough agreement. I mean we've got Republicans can draw in the house Republicans controlling the senate Republican in the White House. Why can't they find enough common ground because they have the votes in and amongst themselves if they can agree on anything why can't GOP come to any agreement on how to do this. Like the big challenge especially. Is this the Medicaid that's. Every every senator represents his state hitters states. And every governor. Knows. You'll need to phone numbers to influence the senate. I want to get their two senators in term studies. That there's a tremendous amount of pressure. I'm Republican senators to do something about that Medicaid is Medicaid caps. Two may make it go easier. I'm very individual states and if you have fifty states want to release from a bill chances are it is that the net. Jared do you see this vote coming next week or before the August recess at all or ever for that matter. Well McConnell. That's speaker McConnell. And I mean Terri the senate majority leader McConnell. Extended the senate sessions for our two more weeks so he has four weeks. Theoretically to to try to get support for this bill. I'm sure he doesn't want it to go four more weeks. And this is this is the longer it goes the the harder I think it's going to be. Two to hold together some sort of voting coalition. So so is he. If there isn't he varies even if the coalition at this point there's just not enough support either way. Well I think that I think that's right the question is how hours signaling to expand. Several hundred billion dollars to five boats. I think mr. Grassley. But that's the way it works. This is the only bill where. That has been in trouble where he spent the money. If you. You know to to get the standard to go your way. You'll you'll get you get passages abilities that might even be bigger investment in terms of how that money is spent. So for example it's point five billion dollars four. The opiate each issue. That was obviously to. Try to keep Ohio with the full in the republicans' fault. I would argue that certain that we had to spend more money. Two. Help help those people. Overcome their addiction. I'm not so sure it is an actual plan for how to spend that 45 billion dollars but there. All right so that having been said. Can they with that 45 billion dollars by end of codes. In time to get this thing through. If you were a betting man and I don't know if you are not ready if you are a betting man would you put money down now on it passing. Or they're never being reform at least not in the foreseeable future. Well let me give it probability at this houses very Smart legislator very canny I would never say he couldn't do. Get a get a vote to this and and get it to pass however I'd give it a bout of bad 5% chance. That's it's a 95% chance it does not. Come to a successful vote only 5% says it does those aren't very good sides and it's keep a lot of other legislation I think that the American public is very interest in. At bay. When they get to tax reform if they can't get health care through what are they just cut and run it's a you know what forget healthcare let's move on to the next legislative Arnold's even get the tax reform it. Yet at least sometime in the next. I would say three or four weeks. Beat the that is a procedural issues we have to pass any and a budget resolution that takes some time. The they're working at it now but not officially. And it and this is the same kind of a process. Using special sent listeners to pass a tax bill. I think I think it tax reform maybe it will be used to do. Because Republicans all sort of understand that cutting taxes to good ideas from an economic standpoint. So they support the general principle when it comes to healthcare and that's vicious as a general principles that the Republicans generally support. So so but what will a tax bill passed. You know maybe this year. That I'd be the music it certainly too much time I'd be looking toward maybe early next year. May be in time before we file our 2017. Taxes. In April of 2018. May be they'll be tax reform by then we shall wait and see JoAnne says that the American. Enterprise institute anything else you'd like to share as we see yet another delay in efforts. To vote on. And pass Health Care Reform on in Washington DC. Well identity key element here is that Republicans do have an opportunity to make important reforms. This bill has some other important reforms but it also has to understand that. Eight Natalie not popular but probably not a good idea. Still sell. You know this is the one and only opportunity for Republicans to make a major debt and health policy. I would hope that in the next few weeks they would see the light. Al find a better bill and vote. I've maybe what you owe him a 5% chance of seeing that light let's up it signs real brightly so they can't. Miss it joins us thanks for joining us here at WWL.