National Hurricane Center

Disturbance could develop in the Gulf of Mexico

Models are not in agreement, and it's early

Dave Cohen, WWL First News early edition
June 18, 2017 - 10:50 pm

The National Hurricane Center says a disturbance off the Mexican Coast will likely develop into a depression or tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico.

"A broad area of low pressure located near the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms along with winds to gale force," according to the National Hurricane Center.

An advisory says there is an 80% chance of formation in the next two days and 90% over five days.

"The low still lacks a well-defined center of circulation. However, gradual development of this system is expected while it moves slowly north-northwestward across the Yucatan Peninsula overnight, and then over the southern or central Gulf of Mexico on Monday and Tuesday, where a tropical or subtropical cyclone is likely to form."

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system on Monday, if necessary.  

Computer models (below) are largely unreliable before a system actually forms a closed circulation, but for now the models show the system moving somewhere from Texas to Florida.

"Right now models are not strengthening it too much and show a wide range of paths it could take," WWL TV Meteorologist Alexandra Cranford said. "It has a high chance of developing into a tropical depression or a tropical storm by Tuesday as it moves over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula into the southern Gulf of Mexico."

She says by Tuesday we should have a much better idea of what the system will do.

Cranford says the biggest concern could be rain into the middle of the week, if the system heads toward the northern Gulf Coast.

We could see "heavy rain of 4-7 inches and some possible flash flooding."

"If it moves northeast toward Florida, we'll get less rain; if it heads northwest toward Texas, we'll get more rain.  We should know more when the system develops in the next day or two," Cranford said.

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