You know I always say never buck a trend. Whether a team is hot or not...whether they're winning or losing, you have to go with the percentages. The trend right now is not good for the Saints. The Saints have struggled in each of their last four games.
New Orleans has not played a consistent four quarters on either side of the football and they are giving up a lot of yards to their opponents. I like to think that sometimes numbers can be misleading and they are with the Saints right now.
Let's look over at the Saints defense. New Orleans entered the Rams game with the 15th ranked defense overall. The Saints defense has been gashed over the course of their last four games. This is not an opinion as you'll see--numbers don't lie.
New Orleans has allowed 1,581-yards of total offense over the last four weeks, which is an average of 395.3-yards per game. Going into week ten of the season, the Browns had the worst overall defense allowing 409.1-yards per game. The Saints current average would rank them just in front of the Browns!
The Saints rush defense, just a few shorts week ago was ranked towards the top of the NFL. That too has changed over the course of the last few weeks. In their games against the Falcons, Panthers and Rams the Saints gave up way too many yards on the ground.
New Orleans went into their tilt with St. Louis with the 17th best rushing defense with an average of 112.1-yards surrendered per game. That number too is somewhat deceiving. The Saints have given up 474-yards rushing combined the last three weeks. That is an average of 158-yards allowed per game.
If you look at league stats you'll find that the Raiders are allowing 161-yards rushing per game. That puts the Saints current average just ahead of Oakland, which is ranked 29th. For the season, the Saints allowed an average of 4.4 yards per rush going into the Rams game. But over the last three weeks that number has swelled to an average of 6.4-yards per carry allowed.
The Saints have also become turnover prone in their last four games. The Saints were once "plus nine" in the turnover differential, before the Dolphins game. Now, just four weeks later, New Orleans is just "plus six." That means the Saints are "minus three" overall in the turnover department the last four games.
Those type numbers are far too important to overlook, as teams will continue to game plan for the Saints with those numbers in mind. Now with all of that said, it's time to look at the numbers within the numbers.
Numbers are misleading at times and here is proof. Other than the Falcons game, the Saints have shut down their opponents on the ground in the second half of the game.
Let's go back to the Saints versus Dolphins. In the first half of the last four games the Saints allowed their opponents a combined 110.8-yards per game. Miami had 120 in the first half, the Falcons had 90, the Panthers had 130 and the Rams got 103.
But check this out! Look at what the Saints have done after making adjustments at halftime. The Saints gave up a total of 443-yards rushing combined in the first half of their last four games, but the second half has been a completely different story.
In the second half of their last four games New Orleans allowed a total of 178-yards rushing. That's an average of only 44.5-yards per game. Now look back at the teams and what they got against the Black & Gold in the first half.
You see it up there? Now read this! New Orleans allowed Miami a meager 17-yards rushing in the second half. Atlanta got 71, Carolina gained 52 and St. Louis 38. The Saints are making some serious halftime adjustments and they are making things happen when the game is on the line.
And what's even more impressive is what the defense has done to their opponent's top running back. Carolina's DeAngelo Williams broke out in a huge first quarter against the Saints, rushing for 83-yards on six carries and two TD's.
But he got hoodwinked in the second half. Williams got just 66-yards on fifteen carries in the final three quarters. And against the Rams, Stephen Jackson was on pace for a monster day. Jackson piled up 100-yards on 16 carries and a TD in the first half with an average of 6.3-yards per attempt.
But Mr. Jackson was derailed in the second half. Jackson rushed for just 31-yards on ten carries for an average of 3.1-yards per pop and no TD's. Now as ugly as the numbers looked when we first started this breakdown, it's just as impressive as what New Orleans has done in the second half, when trying to shut down their opponents rushing attack.
So you have to look at the numbers within the numbers and when you really take time to break them down, you find the truth. The truth is this. The Saints have to improve. They know this. The Saints have to stop turning the ball over; they have to get off to better starts and they have to have some key players get well.
But come on man, this team is 9-0. A year ago the Saints were 4-5 after nine games and their biggest win streak was two games. The Saints lost six games by a total of eighteen points. They were close, but they did not win those games. Would you rather be close and say what if? Or would you rather be winning?
The Saints need to look no further than the mirror in making improvements. But, hey--it is what it is. And what the Saints are is a 9-0 team. New Orleans has a four game cushion over their nearest foe in the NFC South with seven regular season games left, and they control something that they have not been able to control in over forty-years�their own destiny!
So I would certainly suggest that you pay attention to the numbers, but be sure that you break those bad boys down and look at the numbers within the numbers. Who Dat!!
Read more Saints stories:
Porter doesn't need surgery, will be back this season...http://wwl.com/Porter-doesn-t-need-surgery--will-be-back-this-sea/5686439
Nicks: "Nobody seems to know" what's wrong with the Saints...http://wwl.com/Nicks---Nobody-seems-to-know--what-s-wrong-with-th/5686114
Today on SportsTalk - SECOND GUESS the Saints/Rams game with the Cajun Cannon Bobby Hebert, and NFL analyst Mike Detillier live from the Silver Slipper Casino on the beach in Hancock County Mississippi. Then, at 6:30pm it's another WWL exclusive - the SAINTS COACHES SHOW... Bobby Hebert & Deke Bellavia go one-on-one with Head Coach Sean Payton...then this week at 7--Saints Wide Receivers Coach Curtis Johnson! Got a question for Saints Head Coach Payton? Email it to: whodatnation@saintsradionetwork.com.
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