Of all the Saints games this season, this is the game I just don't like. It has nothing to do with the fact that Carolina has won seven straight in the Dome against the Saints. It's about the way the Panthers have played.
Carolina was in control of their games against Philly and Dallas, then turnovers were the start of them falling apart in both of those games. This team has played well on defense, and if Jake Delhome had made better decisions at times, Carolina could easily be 5-2 instead of 3-4.
The Panthers will stay committed to the run, unless they fall behind three scores or more, and they have two very powerful backs in Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams. If the Panthers win this game, they will have won the battle in time of possession, rushed the football at least fifteen more times than they passed it, and they will be even or better in the turnover department.
The Saints have turned the ball over way too much in their last two games...that's a concern. If New Orleans losses the turnover battle this week, I think they'll be hard pressed to win.
The Panthers will try and attack the middle of the Saints defense, and they'll try and get the ball down field to WR Steve Smith. Jake Delhome and Steve Smith have had some great games against the Saints in the past. But that was in the past.
New Orleans now has corner backs that can man-up with Smith, and this defense has developed a knack for taking the ball away. I think the Saints secondary will have a good day against Smith and the other Panthers receivers.
New Orleans will be able to move the ball on the Panthers, and Drew Brees and his offense will look to improve on last week's performance. The Saints scored 35 points, but talking to the players, they just don't feel like they played all that well.
Fourteen points is a lot in this one, but the Saints will still come out on top. I like the Saints at home 28-17, going 8-0 for the first time in franchise history.
The SAINTS Breakdown
Coach Sean Payton will once again face a coach that he is very familiar with in Carolina's John Fox. Although the Panthers are 3-4, Payton knows that the Panthers are a much better team than their record indicates.
"Last week against Arizona they were opportunistic on defense and came up with turnovers and offensively had great balance. When you have a real good running team and an outstanding receiver, it presents problems in regards to how you go about defending that type of challenge. I think they're very good and very well-coached and obviously I've worked with John and have a background with a number of the coaches on that staff, and I think their success over the years is proof of that," said Coach Payton.
The Saints will look to get back to limiting their mistakes, as the last two weeks the offense has given up points. If New Orleans turns the ball over, they'll have a very difficult time winning this week.
Three players that always seem to give the Saints fits are Jake Delhome, WR Steve Smith and DE Julius Peppers. Peppers had arguably his best game of the season last week as the Panthers Defense forced seven turnovers.
Peppers scored the Panthers Defensive touchdown, when he picked off a Kurt Warner pass and returned it 13-yards for a TD. Sean Payton knows the Panthers Defense has a stout defensive front led by Peppers.
"He's an elite pass-rusher and he's also a guy that plays the run very well. He's athletic. he plays very hard. He has great range. Last week he had an interception. They've moved him around some. His career started at left end and evolved to where they moved him to right end and we see him playing on both sides now. We have to do a good job in our protection schemes with him on the field and be able to understand his strength as a run defender as well."
Through seven games this season the Saints have rushed the ball more times than they have passed it. Look for that offensive balance to continue this week. Expect Mike Bell and Pierre Thomas to help wear down the Panthers defense and curtail their up field pass rush against Drew Brees.
Defensively for the Saints things are pretty simple. Slow down the Panthers rushing attack and don't give up the big play to WR Steve Smith. If New Orleans does those things on defense, they'll win the game by two touchdowns.
Sedrick Ellis will be out again this week and the Saints D-Line wants to upgrade their performance from a week ago, when Michael Turner had a breakout game. This defense looks eager to get back on the field.
MLB Jonathan Vilma will be key. He's the ring leader when it comes to stopping the run. Vilma did a great job against the Dolphins, particularly in the final two and half quarters of that game. They'll count on him heavily again this week.
Also, don't be surprised at all if you see the Panthers use some Wildcat formations in the game. They have the backs that can run it, and if successful, it could ease some of the burden on a struggling Delhome.
The PANTHERS Breakdown
Simply put, this is the Panthers last shot. If they lose this game, they will fall to 3-5 on the season and basically have to run the table or hope that several teams lose a lot of games in order to make the post season.
Like Miami, Carolina is a much better team than their record indicates. The Cats have won three of their last four and have a chance to even their record this week. They can get back in the division hunt with a win over the Saints...followed by a win against the Falcons next weekend.
Carolina, more so than any other team in the NFL, must rush the football to have a chance to win games. QB Jake Delhome is struggling to say the least; he's thrown at least one interception in six of the Panthers seven games. Last week was the only time he hasn't been picked off in a game this year.
Jake knows setting the tone by running the football is key to a Panthers win. "That's how we're built. I don't think there's any doubt. That's how this offense is built. That's how Coach John Fox wants it. That's kind of the way it is. It's kind of the way we've always tried to do things over here, some years better than others, but that's what we try to do every football game, to try to establish the run," Delhome said.
Delhome plays his best football in the Louisiana Superdome; he's never lost a football game as a starting QB in our house. The Panthers know the Saints defense is a much improved unit since the last time these two met last December, when the Panthers won a shoot out 33-31.
"I'm talking strictly defense here. When you watch them on defense, certainly Charles Grant and Will Smith...they can still rush the passer. But the back seven...they're coming from all over the place and they're making plays. You watch the Buffalo game. They're bringing corners a bunch that game. They're bringing guys from all over. I guess Gregg Williams has come in and done a great job and these guys have bought into it and played outstanding. They're ball hawkers. That's something that's evident when you watch on film," Delhome said.
After seeing the Falcons rush the football with a lot of success, you can bet that the Panthers will give the Saints defense a heavy does of RB DeAngelo Williams. Williams gashed the Saints last December...rushing for 178-yards.
Carolina is 5th in the NFL in rushing yards per game with 148-9 and they're averaging 4.7-yards per attempt--6th best in the league. But the thing that has plagued the Panthers offense has been turnovers.
Carolina's offense has twenty-four turnovers, which has resulted in 76 points from their opponents. Jake Delhome is responsible for at least thirteen them, while he's only scored five TD's this season.
Statistically Delhome had his best game of the season in the Panthers 34-21 win over Arizona. He finished with his best passer rating of the year with a 94.3 mark. But here's the catch-- he only had to throw the ball fourteen times.
The Saints will need to keep Delhome and the Cats offense in third and long, as they have their most success on manageable distances. Carolina is 21st in the NFL in third down efficiency at 36.3%.
That does not bode well for Carolina, as the Saints defense leads the league in third down defense...allowing a league best 30.5%. If Carolina is to beat the Saints, they'll have to get it done on first and second down like Atlanta did last Monday night.
Steve Smith has enjoyed some big games against the Saints and he will once again be a key in this meeting. Look for Delhome to try and hit Smith with some long passes early on in the game.
Defensively, the Panthers are pretty good. Carolina has the 7th best overall defense and the #1 ranked passing defense. The Panthers have forced thirteen turnovers including eight interceptions.
Carolina is led up front by DE Julius Peppers and at LB with Jon Beason. The Panthers are physical on defense...and history shows, when their running game is clicking on offense, their defense does a better job of getting off the field, because they are well rested.
Conference: NFC
Division: NFC South
Head Coach: John Fox
2008 Record: 12-4
Noteworthy
The Saints have not beaten the Panthers at home since 2001, when New Orleans won 27-23 on December 21st. In the last thirteen meetings the Panthers have a 10-3 edge on the Saints. The Saints will look to start a season 8-0 for the first time in franchise history.
Carolina Panthers (3-4) @ New Orleans Saints (7-0)
Sunday November 8th, 2009 @ Louisiana Superdome
Noon First Take / 3:05PM Kickoff on WWL 870 AM / FM 105.3
Series Record: Panthers lead Series 16-12
Last Meeting: December 28th, 2008 - Carolina 33 New Orleans 31 @ Louisiana Superdome
Who Dat Nation...are you ready? It's another NFC South showdown as the 7-0 Saints battle the Carolina Panthers at home in the Dome? Sunday, we'll bring you 9 hours of wall-to-wall coverage, starting at Noon- "First Take" with Mark Chifici and former Saints offensive lineman, Steve Korte. Then at 1-"Countdown to Kickoff" with the "Cajun Cannon" Bobby Hebert and "Big Chief" Deke Bellavia. Game time is 3pm with the best play-by-play team in football-Jim Henderson, Hokie Gajan & sideline reporter Kristian Garic. After the game-sound off on "The Point After" with the Founding Father of the Who Dat Nation-Bobby Hebert...live from Deanie's Seafood in the French Quarter. It's football time...and the Who Dat Dream is alive...on SAINTSradio -WWL-AM-FM-and dot com!
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