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Posted: Friday, 02 October 2009 3:26PM

Deke: Lay the seven points, Saints will win big




To some this undefeated match-up is somewhat of a surprise, but Saints Head Coach Sean Payton is not at all surprised about the Jets' fast start.  Back in July, prior to the start of training camp, Sean Payton was asked by Sports Illustrated's Peter King about what non-playoff team could make the leap to the post season in 2009.

"If I had to choose one non-playoff team from last season that has a chance to make it into the 2009 postseason, it would be the New York Jets. I think Rex Ryan will do a great job of creating a culture that lends itself to winning. I also love Mark Sanchez as a young quarterback prospect. We will find out soon enough," Payton told King.

The last time Sean Payton went head up against a Rex Ryan defense was back in 2006, when Ryan was the Baltimore Ravens Defensive Coordinator.  The Ravens forced the Saints into several turnovers, including two pick sixes in the Purple Birds' 35-22 win over the Saints.  

New York has the second best scoring defense, allowing eleven points per game...while the Saints are tops in the league in scoring with an average of forty points per outing.

The SAINTS Breakdown

New Orleans is riding high after a big fourth quarter in their 27-7 win over the Bills.  Now the Saints are back home for the first time since early September and they are looking to end the first quarter of the season 4-0 before a bye week.

For the second straight week the Saints are taking on a very aggressive defense, but the Jets pose a different challenge than the Bills.  New York is a blitz happy team that likes to disguise things and mix up their defensive packages.

"There are a lot of multiple looks. They're playing real hard; they're doing a great job and they're always challenging. When you look at his defenses from the past, this one is buying into that scheme, and when you watch them on film, they're doing an outstanding job," said Saints Head Coach Sean Payton.

Payton went on to say that New York has done an excellent job of confusing their opponent's offensive lines.  "They present a lot of challenges in regards to your protections and then the coverage's and trying to get guys out into the pattern and not having everyone in blocking."  

Just like Rex Ryan did in extending compliments to Sean Payton, Payton echoed the same about Ryan.  "I've never worked with Rex. Certainly I have a lot of respect for what he has done in his first opportunity. You can see the personality of a coach and his staff with the way the players play, and you see that with this Jets team – not just defensively, but as a team in general. They present a lot of challenges."

There could be a lot of similarities in this game like back in 2006, when the Saints played host to the Baltimore Ravens, where Rex Ryan served as Defensive Coordinator. Saints QB Drew Brees says a lot of things are the same.

"Yes. It's a lot the same scheme, but then again that was 2006 and this is 2009, so three years later obviously you're working towards the strength of your personnel and you come up with new things. All in all, I think the attitude is the same."

Brees did not fair well that afternoon in the dome, as the Ravens picked off three Brees passes and returned two for scores.  Baltimore built a 35-7 lead and was never really threatened as they went on to a 35-22 win over the Saints.   

Last week against Buffalo the Bills plan was to force Brees to try and throw everything underneath.  This week Drew says the challenge will be different.  "We haven't seen them all that often. T hat's why you have to put in a lot of time looking at them. Sometimes it looks like they're coming from everywhere."

Drew says that execution and taking care of the football are two things that have to be done each week, but especially against a defense like New York's.  "You just have to trust in your scheme and what you're doing, obviously do a great job of taking care of the ball, with protection...and obviously making the plays when you can."

Brees' counterpart, Jets QB Mark Sanchez, has made a quick big splash in the "Big Apple."  Sean Payton likes what he sees in the youngster.  "He has poise. He's a guy that understands how to win. I think he has done a good job of transitioning quickly as a rookie and playing as well as he has played. You saw that on his college tape and you're seeing it now in New York. Those guys are doing a great job with him and with their plans, and he's playing with more and more confidence each week."  

Conference:  NFC

Division:  NFC South

Head Coach:  Sean Payton (4th Year 29-24 overall)

2008 Record:  8-8  
 
 
The JETS Breakdown

1st year Jets Coach Rex Ryan put his defensive stamp on New York the day he was hired.  Ryan comes from great defensive stock, as his father Buddy was long considered one of the best defensive minds ever to coach in the NFL.

New York's 3-0 start is surprising to many, but if any team in the league performed the way the Jets are performing, they'd be 3-0 right now too.  The Jets are doing a good job of running the ball; they're creating turnovers and they're playing very aggressive defense.

New York has been able to dictate the tempo in each of their first three games behind the strong play of their veteran offensive line and with the poise and composure of rookie QB Mark Sanchez.

New York will have their toughest test to date in this big road game against a team that's playing well--the Saints.  Jets Coach Rex Ryan says he has a lot of respect for Sean Payton and that this is going to be a tough match-up.

"I have a great deal of respect for him and I think the feeling is probably mutual. I'll be honest with you...I'm really not looking forward to this one. I wish we could play somebody else, but this is going to be great competition...and I'm certainly not ducking it; that's for sure."

The Jets defense is third overall and they are allowing just eleven points per game, which ranks 2nd in the NFL.  Those numbers go hand in hand with the success of the Jets offense...as their offensive tempo has allowed their defense to come up big.

The Jets rushed the ball more times than they passed in each of their first three games.  New York rushed the ball a total of 104 times and passed the ball 83 times.  Those numbers are the most important again this week.

In their 24-17 win over the Titans, their most competitive game of their first three, the Jets had 31 rushes and 30 passes.  New York's offense is not designed to require QB Mark Sanchez to pass the ball more times than the team rushes the ball.

The Jets can ill afford to get into a big deficit against the Saints.  Jets offensive lineman Alan Faneca says New York needs to control the temp against the Saints.  "I don't think that any team wants to get into a scoring battle with New Orleans.  We will obviously need to run the ball to have success."

The Jets defense has quickly become one of the most feared in the league.  The Jets are physical and they currently lead the NFL in blitzing.  The Jets D has blitzed over 62% of the time they've been on the field.

Coach Rex Ryan says regardless of who his defense faces, their primary goal is to put pressure on the QB.  "We're going to try to make sure that he's not comfortable back there, no matter what it takes each week.  If that means that we can rush three, or if it means we have to rush four, five, six or seven or eight – whatever it takes, we're not going to let him sit back there and beat us to death...I promise you that." 

Ryan went on to say he has to mix a few things up in his calls, as Saints QB Drew Brees presents a difficult challenge.  "He's just a great quarterback. He knows how to play the position.  He knows how to read defenses.  It's hard to get to him.  He doesn't take sacks and he's smart with the football. He has a lot more talent than people give him credit for as well. He's a nightmare to go against, but I think we'll do some things defensively that probably aren't really traditional, so it's going to be a lot tougher. If you play traditional coverage's against him time after time, he's going to wear you out."

The leader on the Jets' D-Line is NT Kris Jenkins.  Jenkins is off to another Pro-Bowl start this season, and last week against the Titans he registered four tackles for a loss.  The biggest improvement on the Jets defense is at linebacker.

Linebacker David Harris leads New York with 24 stops, and he came up big last week...recording a sack and picking off a pass.  OLB Vernon Gholston is starting to come into his own, and he could be come a much better player in Ryan's aggressive scheme.

And the Jets' biggest off-season acquisition, LB Bart Scott, is right at home in New York, coming over with Ryan from Baltimore.  Scott led New York last week with nine tackles and he leads the team with six QB hits this season.

The player that is off to the best start for the Jets defense is CB Darrelle Revis.  Revis, the third year player out of Pitt, has been quite impressive in his first three games in 2009.

Revies limited two of the game's best WR's to well below average numbers in the first two weeks.  Revis shut down Houston's Andre Davis...limiting him to just four receptions for 35-yards. Then, the very next week he shut down the Patriots Randy Moss. keeping him in check with four grabs for 24-yards.

With that said there is not a single player for New York's secondary to key on...as Drew Brees has done a solid job of distributing the football to all of his weapons.   
 
Conference:  AFC

Division:  AFC East

Head Coach: Rex Ryan

2008 Record:  9-7


Big Chief's Final Analysis 

This match-up could go either way, as the Saints' strength is going up against the Jets' strength in what the national media is billing as an offense versus defense battle in the Superdome.

But the key factor here is the Saints' defense.  Coach Greg Williams' unit currently ranks third in the NFL in blitzing, and that trend has proven in the past that young inexperienced QB's usually fold under that kind of pressure.

The Saints defense is allowing 18.7 points per game.  But when breaking down offensive and defensive scoring, the numbers can be skewed at times.  Take away the Lions scoop and score, the Saints intentional safety against the Eagles and the Bills fake field goal for a score...and New Orleans is allowing just 13.3 points per game.

The Jets have proven they have and must continue to control the pace of games.  New York trailed by no more than six points on two occasions this season and that was in their win over New England.

In their games against the Texans and Titans, the Jets were able to jump out to leads and then keep the pace at their designation.  That is where the Saints will take over this game in the dome.

If New Orleans can get out to an early lead, this game could be a blowout.  The Saints have scored touchdowns on their opening possession of each game.  If that happens against the Jets, the Saints can put the heat on young Sanchez far too early than he has had to deal with in his first three games.

The Saints must also keep New York in third and long, and force Sanchez to throw the ball downfield instead of short yardage situations.  I think the Saints will get off to a hot start and then Coach Payton will open his playbook, if the Black and Gold build a two score lead.  And once they do that, look for Greg Williams to turn up the heat on the young Jets QB...and the Who Dat Nation will have an enjoyable Sunday evening in the Dome!

Lay the seven points in this one.  Saints 27 Jets 10


New Orleans Saints (3-0) vs New York Jets (3-0)

Sunday, October 4th @ Louisiana Superdome 

9am- Saints Sunday / Noon - First Take / 3:05PM - Kickoff on WWL 870 AM/FM 105.3

Series Record:  Series 5-5

Last Meeting:  November, 27 2005 – New York 21 New Orleans 19 @ Giants Stadium
 


  02:49pm CDT, 03/17/10
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