Saints season ticket holders are getting their tickets in the mail this week. When they look over the lineup, they may be a little worried about the strength of the schedule the Black and Gold face this year. I say don't be worried.
When the NFL schedule comes out each year, inevitably the pundits start to break it down and determine strength of schedule. I've always been a little confused by this process. How can you determine what a team will look like in week 10 of your schedule before training camp even begins?
I'll bet the Cowboys thought the Cardinals were going to be a "win" in week 6 last year when the schedule came out. Is the strength of schedule for you the fan or the odds makers in Vegas?
ESPN.com and NFL.com say the Saints currently have the 8th toughest schedule in the league. The Black and Gold play the AFC and NFC East along with their divisional games this year. Five playoff teams from a year ago dot the Saints schedule this season. New Orleans faces the Eagles in week 2 followed by the Giants, Dolphins, Panthers, and Falcons in the second quarter of their season.
The experts said that the New England Patriots had the easiest schedule last year. Tell them that after they lost all world quarterback Tom Brady in week one. If you subscribe to the twisted calculation that is the strength of schedule, try this one on... The Saints had the 28th ranked strength of schedule heading into last year, and still managed to finish at just 8 and 8.
Given that formula, the Black and Gold should have made the play offs right? Did you know the Super Bowl Champion Pittsburgh Steelers had the toughest projected schedule last year? Yep, they sure did. They still got the job done last year didn't they? Their opponent in last year's Super Bowl, the Arizona Cardinals, had the 21st toughest schedule. Is it that big of a deal? If you are a good team, you are a good team in the NFL.
The problem I have with "strength of schedule" is this: You can't factor injuries into this equation, and the truth is there isn't a team in the NFL that will look the same in week 16 as they did in week 1.
I just don't like the system. I know it makes for good water cooler talk, but I'd love to see the reaction of Chicago Bears Coach Lovie Smith when someone says, "Hey Coach, you have the easiest schedule in the league this year; how do you feel about that?"
This is the NFL. They are all tough games aren't they? Well, unless your playing the Detroit Lions, which the Bears do TWICE. So, maybe that's why they have the easiest schedule.
Don't take my word for it, ask NFL analyst Mike Detillier. "I think it's always a difficult measuring stick because you're always basing it off of what happened a year ago," he said.
Listen to Detillier:
Detillier says when you start breaking down schedules, the most important thing to look at is winning early. "Teams that have won are teams that can get off to a real quick start."
The only playoff team in the first four weeks for the Saints is Philadelphia. They also face the Lions, Bills and Jets. So, if they can manage a 3 and 1 mark after the first quarter of the season, they should be in good shape, right? "3 and 1 would be what your looking for. Again, that's always tough, but that's what you want shoot for - to get out of the blocks quickly." said Detillier.
The second four game stretch is all playoff teams: Giants in the Superdome, at Miami and back to back home games against divisional rivals Atlanta and Carolina.
Just because the opponents were in the playoffs last year, that may not mean much by the time the games are played this year. A single injury to a key player can change everything, or great off season changes can make a loser from a year ago a great team this year.
The truth is we really won't know until December how tough the team's schedule really is or is not. It's good fodder for fans and analysts, but it's nothing more then over-hyped drama. After all, look at the Atlanta Falcons. Nobody expected a team with a brand new head Coach in Mike Smith and a rookie quarterback Matt Ryan to be as good as they were last year.
Who's gonna be that team this year? Who will be the "surprise" team on the Saints schedule? Who will be the "disappointing" team on the Saints schedule? We won't know how tough the schedule really is until December. The NFL loves the strength of schedule debate. The fans love it and the odds makers in Vegas go gaga over it. I just don't put a lot of stock into "strength of schedule" arguments.
Here is the schedule:
SUN SEP 13 DETROIT LIONS 12:00 pm
SUN SEP 20 @ Philadelphia Eagles 12:00 pm
SUN SEP 27 @ Buffalo Bills 3:05 pm
SUN OCT 4 NEW YORK JETS 3:05 pm
SUN OCT 18 NEW YORK GIANTS 12:00 pm
SUN OCT 25 @ Miami Dolphins 3:15 pm
MON NOV 2 ATLANTA FALCONS 7:30 pm
SUN NOV 8 CAROLINA PANTHERS 3:05 pm
SUN NOV 15 @ St Louis Rams 12:00 pm
SUN NOV 22 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 12:00 pm
MON NOV 30 NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 7:30 pm
SUN DEC 6 @ Washington Redskins 12:00 pm
SUN DEC 13 @ Atlanta Falcons 12:00 pm
SAT DEC 19 DALLAS COWBOYS 7:20 pm
SUN DEC 27 TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS 12:00 pm
SUN JAN 3 @ Carolina Panthers 12:00 pm
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