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Posted: Wednesday, 14 August 2013 2:00PM

Tropical wave expected to move into Gulf, high chance of development



Chances are increasing for tropical development in the Caribbean.

"Cloudiness and showers associated with this low continue to show signs of organization...and a tropical depression could form before the disturbance reaches the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday," according to National Hurricane Center Senior Hurricane Specialist Lixion Avila.  "This weather system is forecast to move over the Gulf of Mexico...where upper-level winds will likely be a little less favorable for development."

He says the odds are increasing for development.

"This system has a high chance...60 percent...of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours...and a high chance...70  percent...of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 5 days," Dr. Avila said.

Either way he expects parts of Mexico and Central America to feel some impact.

"Regardless of whether or not a tropical cyclone forms...heavy rains and gusty winds are forecast to spread over the Yucatan Peninsula and Belize during the next day or two...and interests in these areas should monitor the progress of this disturbance."

Channel 4 Meteorologist Derek Kevra says models are disagree on how strong the system will get and where it will go.

"A lot of the models are in agreement that the moisture will move over the Southern Gulf of Mexico," Kevra said.  "Still some uncertainty at that point.  The majority of the models do show it moving north.  Some of the models have it pushing into portions of Texas with a western track."

He says because of the uncertainties, everyone along the Gulf Coast -including Southeast Louisiana- should watch the system over the next five days.

Kevera says it would likely impact some part of the Gulf Coast by Sunday.

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