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Posted: Monday, 03 June 2013 3:30PM

Update: Forecast of active hurricane season still holds



Update: Forecast of active hurricane season still holds

In an update released today, Meteorologists with the Colorado State University hurricane forecast team continues to predict 18 named storms for this year's Atlantic Hurricane season.  

Today's updated estimates are the same busier-than-normal season predicted in April when the forecast team released their first predictions of this year's hurricane season.

Nine Atlantic storms are expected to become hurricanes, with four of those expected to go on to become "major" hurricanes of at least Categor-3 status.

The team predicts that tropical cyclone activity in 2013 will be about 175 percent of the average season. By comparison, 2012 witnessed tropical cyclone activity that was 131 percent of the average season.

The hurricane forecast team's probabilities for a major hurricane making landfall on U.S. soil in 2013 are:

• Entire U.S. coastline – 72 percent (average for last century is 52 percent.)

• U.S. East Coast including Florida Peninsula – 48 percent (average for last century is 31 percent.)

• Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville, Texas – 47 percent (average for last century is 30 percent.)

• Caribbean – 61 percent (average for last century is 42 percent. )

Click HERE to view the full forecast report from the Colorado State University hurricane forecast team...

Click HERE for WWL's Hurricane Central page...

An average season would be around 12 named storms and 6 hurricanes.

Why so much activity this year?  CSU researcher Phil Klotzback tells WWL First News it's the unusually warm waters in the Tropical Atlantic, which provides fuel for cyclone development.  

''The probability of a major hurricane making landfall along the Gulf Coast, we have at around 47 percent, or about a 50-50 chance,” Klotzback told us.

As for a landfall somewhere in Louisiana, their prediction for a major hurricane landfall for this season is 20 percent.  As for a Category 1 or 2 storm hitting Louisiana, the estimate is just under a 50 percent chance.

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Topics : Weather
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Locations : BrownsvilleCaribbeanGulf CoastLouisianaTexasU.s. East Coast
People : Phil Klotzback
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