Will you vote in this election?

Newell Normand
Tuesday, November 14th

The latest UNO poll shows Cantrell is in the lead by double digits. However, 19% of voters are still undecided…are you? Will you vote in this election? What could the cadidates do or say to make you get out and vote for them?

This Hours guest:
Ed Chervernak - UNO Political Science Professor
Clancy Dubos - WWL-TV's Political Analyst

00:27:10

Transcript - Not for consumer use. Robot overlords only. Will not be accurate.

Good morning New Orleans and what a wonderful morning it is yet again it's nice being able to save this almost every morning last week in almost every morning this week thus far and we're less than 72. Hours away from the election. Yesterday the polls revealed that more people were interested in Gary their implants than they wore in the mayoral election hopefully that changes today where. On a tight time longer coming down to the wire. Of a defining moment for this city and new leadership for the next four years if not eight. And that in and of itself with the challenges that we hear about not only on this show but on the news. And throughout all the community groups in the city. Every day that we need to deal with. We begs inspired. Leadership credible leadership. Folks that are gonna take us. To the next level hopefully and improve upon the successes of the past administration and also improve upon. The failures of the past administration. As we move forward in the leadership of this city. In the last hour we're gonna talk about tax reform and one of the issues in this tax reform bill is the elimination. Of historic tax credits. That has generated in stimulated. A plethora of development in the city of New Orleans as we celebrate our tri Centennial year. We recognize that we have the availability of a lot of historic films. That can be rehabilitated. Re mediated put back into the stream of commerce. In a very productive way. Which helps the economic development of this region and will be talking to. Kim Rubin senior fellow at the urban institute project director for state and local finance initiatives as well as McKenzie live day directorate Stonehenge capital company. In the second hour what. A huge. Huge announcement by the governor. And the mayor. Michael Hecht and others in Louisiana. Economic development. Folks. Relative to DXC technology. A huge 2000 jobs with the ripple effect of over 4000. High paying high tech jobs come to the area there's money for our local education system to try and back fill those positions will be talking to. Don Pierson a secretary or the Louisiana economic development. As well as Michael hack. The you know folks doctor as chairman acting in his team. Periodically released surveys. On political races and in particular a very important races are just pointed out the may laurels rate mayoral race and this poll was a survey of 602 likely Orleans parish voters and was conducted from November 1 to November 8. And we learned of its results in that you just yesterday. And it reveals that. LaToya Cantrell has an eleven point lead. Going in to. The election on Saturday and there's still about nineteen or 20% of the voters undecided. And we'll be talking and adding Clancy and Ed two joins us on line at the present time welcome to the show ahead. Every now. Thanks so much and you guys always do a great job and obviously the timing of this poll is very important gives a snapshot of where we stand so when achieved if you don't mind give us the highlights of the results of the poll. Sure yeah you actually corrected with a snapshot of public opinion at a particular time. And what. Chose is that LaToya Cantrell that's enjoyed double digit lead over does racial or the day. And that Cantrell was doing very well with African Americans she's doing well with women and she's also doing. Well with the millennial. If you go to doing very well with them like bill that there's voters. 57%. Of those folks say that there cannot. Vote for the toll Cantrell and to play and so that's a 21 margin over from potential partial opening. So when we think about you know typically in races when you get to the runoff there are candidates that don't make it. This Connor highlights that little statistic highlights the importance of having these other folks transfer. There are popularity. Over to another candidate and obviously she's doing very well in that regard. If she is. We've seen the ads of Michael back nurse. Providing a full throated endorsement of the time they control and so. That can only helper. Are you surprised. By. This being this close to the election and still haven't roughly 20% of the vote undecided. I'm sort of surprised a lot of people. I think have doubts about both candidates and just can't make up their mind and an available for. And and you know I think a lot of people still just may be unwilling. Also to express their preferences a lot of people can hesitate over the phone and say well certainly volatility on Lenovo for. But you know they'll certainly give their opinion on other issues that we asked about in the poll. So that against who are listening audience that that it. That's kind of off hard yes or soft yes or our heart no more soft knows we refer to it. In in an ethic in in your poll it's comment leaner and they're leaning that way. Is there the possibility. At this late in the game that there could be. A huge surprise. Where there were no. You know anything can happen within like you mentioned the next 72 hours. So he got BO I don't like to predict what's gonna happen in the future because. Offense can take place. It's it undermines its predictably unpredictable right. Yes absolutely. And so motives are careful about making predictions and I learned my lesson last November. Certainly I'm about making predictions of the polls and you know outcomes of elections he ought to be always there to be very careful about that. You me and a lot of others. And be on the undecideds are very unpredictable because we don't know which way to shift we don't know their guns split equally between two candidates or they're gonna move one Wafer what can hear there. Or they may just decide. You know. I don't like either one of these candidates on this and stereo. Wouldn't what struck me is out in the poll looking added it is. To me it's rare. That you see a candidate that leads in almost every Scioscia economic category. Almost without exception across race gender. Age group. All of I don't often see that I always wondering what your observations war. Oh Millwood goes is that she's got a broad based support out there. Potential campaign's been very focused on them grassroots campaign going out there and you know meeting people. Reaching out people my understanding is that they meet you know tens of thousands of calls on Election Day. You know get their ground game going and can get people there so I think. That's what she's as the two you know support across both aged. Gender race. Not so much region she's doing certainly doing very well district being industry deepen it cheese eating up before bush urban district. Right then district be being her home console. Yeah district is our call. Right no surprise that you got 51% of them vote in the primary there and so this. No reason to think that you look at them you know majority vote there this time. Right it do you find that there is some of this may be attributed to the fact that you know council people work with the electorate every day trying to solve problems. Day in and day out and sometimes it even crosses there council manic districts as opposed to someone come in from. Municipal court it doesn't have that comic contact with the Pope. I think that that's correct that she's you know out there in contact with public any of the force became consummate or shoot out there. And contact with the public as the community. Organizer and so she's been able to developer people's skills on the way. And that she got its start in the mayoral campaign by. Going on this listening tour and going to various neighborhoods throughout the city. And you know giving her speech and then taking questions from small groups of citizens and and so I think you know that's really kind of given her a big advantage. Where if you could stay with us through the break will be right back and will move to the next part of the poll about. The popularity or our lack thereof with the mayor and his job approval and also very heated. Questions about the future it's a statute will be right back talking about that in just a moment this is you'll Norman and every Dario. We're back door talking to doctor Ed Sherman act you know political science professor who just revealed the results of the UN oh hole and survey for the New Orleans mayoral runoff. And I thought it was. Interesting that you did the the Mayo oral job approval and I think it has a strong connection to. Where we are as as a relates to this president many oral race. And at least giving a template as as a relates to where this is at this point in time this snapshot of may oral approval. And the and the folks that may be elect the one that weight will be elected I'm sorry on Saturday. And so tell us a little bit about what these findings reveal. Willa every time we go into the field in the world we always ask about the mayor's job approval we'd like to keep track of that these tickets important for him. The you know the public to give their opinion and the mayor and to let the mayor know what the public thinks about him his performance in office. And Leo we found this 64%. Gave which went to a positive rating. But we see in differences on the cross straits oh like serve. More happy with the mayor here while African Americans are relatively satisfied with the mayor's performance. And he hasn't made any endorsements and so what we want to see is whether. His job approval was having any influence simple choice. And soul. What we found that. Those people who approve or strongly approve of the mayor are more likely to support to a Cantwell. Well those folks who disapprove of the mayor. And two. Want to go with that direction so. There's a and the indirect influence that to mayors having an election. And obviously it it's not the they won the rug that it could end up being close to very much a one for one we not we don't really know and a transfer ability of what people think there. Relative to the outcome of the vote is that it is going to be relatively close correct. Well it depends you know an example children by double digits. It again and again depends on those undecided whether that number shrinks or in fact whether or even grows but too. Certainly the public seems to be linking. Potential campaign to the performance of the mayor and in part that makes sense because. Does she isn't sitting member of the City Council. And as part of you know current government. And you also pulled the issue of sewage and water borne I think the one thing there is if there seems to be. Overwhelmingly. People do not believe that it should go on as saying independent agency. No that's the least. Popular option thumbnail we you know that we opera when asked by the people wanted to see a privatized whether. They want to see it remain as an independent agency or whether they want to see it. Placed under city control report mayor and and by 31 margin. They would like to see it. Placed under City Hall control rather than being privatized. This is opening of this sentiments across the board it listed varying degrees of support but. You know no less than a majority. Would like to see that is placed under city halls control. Right and and even in spite of the fact that there could be some legislative hurdles that need to be. You know that we need to get over and some of the issues. Of bonding capacity and things of that nature that may be impediments to doing something. Much of the public is you know where all that. They're certainly aware of what took place on August 5. Com and they're you know they're basically calling for reform. Or you know some kind of some some sort of reform that has to take place there there were looking for change for the soup urgent report. We have just a few have just a minute or so left the last issue the chill pulled out there was. The removal of the Andrew Jackson statue and what that reveal. Well what it reveals is that in there are intense strong opinions on this matter that he. You know come and that the public is basically split on this issue of the just over a third. Favor removing Andrew Jackson just over a third. Oppose it and about 20% are undecided no opinion. And so. You know that the soap opinions on that there are intensely held. And because I was can introduce the day after the taken down rally what was public opinion. We are 201660%. Of people did approve taking on the confederate month. But we're not finding that with the interject this that you were finding that if these cities basically split industry. You know what to vocal minorities and it significantly sized portion that most of remain silent at this point. Then I'm sure that this debate will continue. Yes I'm sure wells that this is that you know it's interesting. Heavily symbolic but that very emotional issue. Led less is 72 hours and we look forward just to seeing how close these results a viewer poll are to the actual election results. Out of mind that and so world's mostly thanks so much for taking time out of your busy day were truly appreciated. Thank you know it pleasure. We're back in joining us on a line is planned to do WW LTV's political analysts and we just got and jerk Sherman act on line and he talked about the poll results Clancy and what is your reaction to the pole at this point in time. Well very much like you'll hurt his his discussion with he was very good discussion. Obviously US all the right questions and he and he gave his answers. You know. A quick intro going into the primary. Looked like she was going to run first. If there was a surprise in the primary to those who read and people like me in. Who. Watch these things very closely and you and others. What we did not know. It is how much of the benefit Cantrell widget for being kind of above the fray as the work because there was some. Shots fired back and forth in the primary between. The campaigns of DeVon it doesn't ratio and Michael Bennett Maris but nobody really went directly at Cantrell. And sometimes that's a subliminal thing is sometimes it's right there in your FaceBook whatever was voters casting news that. Somehow can't truck came across as the one who was above the fray perhaps little cleaner than in others. Of course there was an independent. Both political action committee. And not for sale Knoll that. Want some very serious very hard hitting attacks against Chardonnay who was the early front runner. And sort of knocked her out of first place and I think there was certainly a benefit for Cantrell. In the Primerica a map of what we. The real. I think secret is work to. I can't troll success in the primary in that she ranked first while large margin 39%. To 30% to sharpen things. Was how to organize Cantrell get out the vote effort was she had a very what I call Barack Obama ask. Turnout mechanism that is it was heavily. Based in technology and social media as opposed to standing on the corner waving signs in just knocking on doors which speaks. On October 1980s. And 1970s model of get out to vote. And it was used also by Hillary Clinton had a successfully but certainly. Poehler President Obama used that direct contact via cellphone. Via social media in both of his successful campaigns for president in a kind of marked a new era in American politics in terms of how we get out to vote. And that's the model that tantrum used a total and on Election Day her campaign actually halt. 30000. Voters and she got about 32000 votes that's not to camp the turnout mechanism that. Sharp and they had. And when you combine those two factors I think it very much explains. The big margin net Cantrell in the primary and that carries forth into the runoff retro looking. Very much like a front runner very much a favorite early polls are of one that has ever had but 24 points. I'm not sure up put a lot of stock in that but I would certainly. I would certainly believe that if I had a picture of an act poll. Taken right out of the primary right when Michael back and are endorsed Cantrell a week after the primary. But she was about eighteen to twenty points ahead. Then came some attacks about the credit cards and you know that that became a dominant issue in the runoff. And I think it has brought the rates closer but I agree with and look at this poll and have been other polls that show that over time. Can't stroke lead has dropped as the world from around maybe forty points down to around ten or eleven points it may be a little closer or voters. Historically when they see attacks. They do don't go from Petrova shop and it directly in this case it would go from catch from maybe to undecided. And definitely did decide to go back to control we'll switch to sharpen it. I think there's been some tightening of the race. But in his last. Two weeks to remember this poll was what ended. November 08 so that's. You know eight to ten days before the primary for the runoff and so I attended before Election Day. So there will be a little bit of shipping but I think right now the ground this kind of settling I don't think there's going to be a lot changing one way or the other right now. People generally. Don't learn this from my mentor Joseph walking and you knew because you. Was supposed to to have relief and many others in Jefferson Parish years ago. Is it undecided tends to go up about. A week or two before election and it's settles back down. And it goes up because that's when the attacks come. And people leave it. Believe the attacks and they go with another candidate article back to where they wore. There's no way to predict that. But certainly there this late poll relatively late Pol Pot you know. Suggests. Strongly that intro has a lead to comfortable leave. Something significant would happen happen. Sort of slipped. And of course we saw that it's a few you know half an hour ago we all saw something flip last November so it can happen is not a prediction. Right well we got to take a break and if you stay with this through the when we come back what does surprise me is that we really haven't talked about. The differences where they are on some issues and there are some really. Marked differences as they've revealed themselves to the constituency over the last week or so we'll discuss those. We have that would be right back excuse me we have plans to do boasts stay with this this is Noual Norman and every Dario. We're back door talking to Clancy do most every derailed TV's political analysts in Clancy. Their Lotta issues at their marked differences in their approach so for example an affordable housing. This can't trials in favor of establishing a rental registry. And ms. sharp and is simply a against the red renal registry. Yet that's one of the issues that I think there are a lot of issues within the difference between the common are kind of nuance but that is not one of them not one whether as a stark difference. A lot of people you know won't attack with a lot of reactors which means as a town with a lot of landlords and landlords are. A major political force in this city are renters don't plan ought to be a little more organized and they tend to pool their money. But I'll certainly a lot of people who would indeed residential housing business. Feel that I registry might be the first step toward rent control what you have in new York and they're very much opposed to that and it also shows that. Cantrell. It is frankly a much more liberal on some people's progressive. Where were you when you use to describe it. Much more of let's say a Bernie Sanders tight. Candidate. And bookshop and that is lower. Senator Hillary Clinton but miserable like Bill Clinton type of candidate a centrist Democrats. As opposed to a very Liberal Democrats like Bernie Sanders an effect a lot of that. Campaign mechanisms that. Petro users again or turnaround effort very social media driven she's very popular among millennial that's polls shows that. Certainly leads among the millennial and that's kind of a Bernie Sanders type appeal as well. Yeah and also when you look in this area of economic opportunity. Missed Cantrell says that she supports parking shuttle service and you music union is nation for hospitality workers. And a mandate of 35% disadvantaged business enterprise program participation whereas we Sharma today is focused on improving. The New Orleans regional business park and in the east than changing the procurement process. In some way to open it up two more small and local businesses. Jim do Richards and issues on the issue of unionization of the hospitality industry but it's already happening we have three hotels now. That are either unionized or in the process of being unionized downtown. But whether that. Change traction and spreads throughout the hospitality industry remains to be seen and certainly workers in the industry. Might welcome a mayor who's going to be on their side to give them a platform and a bully pulpit. Certainly the leaders of the hospitality industry in terms of those who all the hotels and all the restaurants. And maybe even the patrons would be looking at that random house is going to affect my pocketbook. But truth that is. In order to have a healthy economy we have to have a balance between. Promoting economic growth as Chardonnay is suggesting out in the east and elsewhere. And having held the base of paying for. Of the workers in the industry because that might turn zobel locally. So it's always a question of striking the right balance but they certainly approach it from very different angles. Then it's ironic that you say that because they're both support higher minimum wage people pay for women. Ban the box initiatives and local hiring so that's where those two actually meet in the middle. So you know when we think about a lot of the other issues that you know comment top line talks. And it due to it's going to be interesting to see. Whether or not and in this last few days they part or even reveal more of themselves a doubted. Hasn't nobody really wants to hurt themselves at this point in time. About how they gonna actually execute some of these ideas because it when you do the deep dive on him I don't see that. No you're absolutely right nor I couldn't say it better than what you just they've they've both got as far as had gotten. I don't think either candidate. It is going to win the election by getting deep in the weeds on complex policy issues W and I know. That that's where you know this is the devil's in the details and that's where. And administration really shows what it's all. They've gotten this far taken whatever risks they felt they needed to take if you are sharp and day you want. Sharpen the attack even more and pour it on and and tell wave a flag and try to say it looked. The lady Cantrell was dangerous you know awful you know whether she's too liberal whether she's. Not prudent with money attention and respect your money which is the essence of the attacks on the credit cards. Or is your can't Trout you're gonna say to your base. I'm the leader you'd think I am don't forget to vote. But needle and it's gonna take any big risks. On policy issues in the last week did in the debate which is gonna play it safe. Absolutely ruled Clancy thanks so much for your insight we we truly appreciated minutes of what happened we'll see what happens on Saturday yes we will thanks so much. We'll be right back this is you'll Norman endeavored audio. We're back in a pretty jaguar opinion poll are you undecided or have you made up your mind about who should be then New Orleans next mayor 67%. Of the respondents said they have decided in. 33. Percent say they have yet to decide. Still quite a few folks out there that you need to make that decision it's all important decision we will have. They debate here. Tomorrow night Wednesday and 7 PM. Dave Cohen will be the moderator Stephanie grace from the advocate and myself will be the panelists as we. Ask LaToya Cantrell and Deseret Sharma today. Very pointed questions. About a number of issues set this city is facing and hopefully. Will get some answers so join us tomorrow evening at seven. We'll be right back in will be talking about the very important announcement of DXC technology common attempt.
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