Political warming?

Newell Normand
Tuesday, January 2nd

Political warming?  Will 2018 be as divisive and nasty as 2017?  

This Hours guest:
Ron Faucheaux - Political Analyst & President of Clarus Research Group

00:31:35

Transcript - Not for consumer use. Robot overlords only. Will not be accurate.

We're back Jenin this hour we're going to be talking to Iran for O'Shea political analyst and president of Claris research group and you know 2018 for me ethic is going to be a defining year for the trop administration. And the Republican controlled congress I mean there are very important campaign promises that have yet to be delivered or even address. And on top of that. There's gonna be the necessity for cleanup legislation to fulfill promises made to secure votes on tax reform. And I are here to discuss these issues and others is Ron tocchet political analyst and president of Claris research group welcomed the show around. Well like you know happy new year happy new year all lawlessness which. The same do you Ron thank you so much let me ask you you know I think. First the clean up borne attack reform bill there were a number of promises made in order to secure the votes necessary to get it through and it is it was a big victory for the trump administration. But now elsewhere the double. Is in the details and you know with just to bring one to the forefront Susan Collins. You know back the measure. Because they they remove the individual mandate in the ACA and now they got to figure out. How they're gonna bring back and restore these car sharing. A reductions for poor people. You know institute to set up these offsets and what are your thoughts about them. Well you know that that that's important that these could be done well the suspect is that the outlook. Efforts to revise. The tax bill I think. In particular hole mortgage deduction. Suspect there's as people realized that that may be affecting their ability to bomb. To deduct interest that they may pol pretty loudly. Congress quick response to the election year but but you're under that right although it has to be done it's going to be hard to get it done. Quickly. Congress has not because it's here in the next few weeks and he. The that the good dreamer so. Legislation. Has been in expires Mort they have. You've got the chip program the Children's Health Insurance Program. The three month funding is rotting out of that. If you waddle ordered government shut. Like January 19 the gonna have to pass legislation. And he said it has to pass the hurricane. Disaster relief legislation. The next few months they have the debt ceiling and they have flies which involves. You know any information. For intelligence markets that expires you were going to so from congress as the biggest. That they have to get done in the next couple months so epic which you'll probably see is well put together. Few big big holes. Although attempt to have everything in it. In an attempt to keep the deals that that are gonna keep that in maybe make some of the factions. Blew it seemed to me wrong that leading up to the mid term elections that the Republicans are gonna wanna try and put this on a fast pace. And get a number of these issues done. If I had to prioritize and from the easiest it would seem that disaster relief should be a give me and should get some bipartisan support. I know that the the Democrats. Were voted against. And do you have proposal right before the the Christmas break and I got to assume that that's going to be one that they bring back real soon. Yeah but but there's only on the politics of it is not so much about disaster relief. The never risked. A little technical. Glitzy at that we we lost Ron. But the point I was trying to make is that that seems to be one of the bills that that that there could be some bi partisan support if it was an up or down vote. On disaster relief itself. Its the same thing with the doctor dreamers bill. In fact one and we did congressman's police. In in studio last week. It was in issues that I asked him about he said there will not be an up or down vote on dreamers it's going to be. All on it and be added in an entire immigration reform. Bill and then that begins to complicate the issues a whole lot more. That are being presented because then yeah multitude of issues that you're dealing with is oppose issues. That one issue and I don't disagree with him to a certain extent that you know that it's going to be problematic but the real run back on line Ron you're either. So I was just talking that I thought that we could get some bi partisan support in disaster relief if it was just an up or down vote on disaster relief. You're absolutely would be no problem at all she already desperate. You know. But it did and never ends up that way and it it doesn't end up as upper down vote on that one issue it's always going to be embedded in something else or something tag to it in and and just. Completely complicating the issue. Sure that's right I remember back in in 2006. We had an important Katrina relief bill and and they put it like which about the war rocked this story controversial. Bills so. So you never know what could happen and those types of bills and whether whether they dislike these the most of vehicle to get out with the extra. And while we have lost Judd mentioned. I had congressman's release it in studio last week and we were talking about the doc the dreamers. Oil which expires on March 5 as you pointed out. And he indicated that there will not be an up or down vote on dock it will be embedded in immigration reform in general bill. With the appeal a number of reform issues and and the wall will definitely be that Cobb via there is no wal. No dreamers. Well you know I think that's certainly what central administration is positioning for the Republican leadership that congress. Opposition to war and I made I think it's possible that they could even in local big global deal on immigration. The question is whether the Democrats really want a dealer. You know whether they want to walk you know who oppose the wall who oppose. Some of these other trump administration. Proposals. And then use the fact that the dreamers and dollar protected from deportation. Against the trumpet ministry should sew up the city. Where the politics go out there but there is not an opportunity for so. But some compromise so and so. So you mentioned earlier that the budget is going to. We got till January the nineteenth. Here we are January 2 seventeen days away and so we have a lot of territory to cover. As it relates to that particular issue. And you know. While all these other issues ago on August what. Right through you know and of course that though is the big big issue is that affects the spending the ball federal agencies. And of course of several. Budget system. Is still operating under the sequester caps look past some years ago. He had. It's so they have to. Not only do they have to fallen. From the government so that it doesn't doubt object you're factory but they will have to raise the sequestered. By February. It's like one girl boy somebody automatic but the bill would effect. So the next month will double a lot of a budget issues that will war offered. Political shadows of the regional elections. Well if you could for these listening audience cause a lot of folks the debt ceiling in the budget aren't necessarily. Synonymous. But a lot of times or talked about and in the same breath but there there are two separate and distinct issues correct. Yeah very much. Me or all. May. Abbate thing that the federal government doesn't operate. Pursuant to a bunch this church really theories so. Oh auto related appropriations bill currently all of yeah budget delegations they put him but but respectfully not it's not McConnell or is that they woke of its top rated under. And and that frankly I think it's kind of a chaotic minutes but. The what you got you know congress appropriating money to agencies. But the a debt ceiling is entirely different because what that does is he says. App that you could spend money whether or not you're going to be able to borrow on. The patent deficits we expect that. It would be almost like. If you bought a house. You mortgage follows. Is that you don't want to pay you monthly you know. Even though you've already got the benefit of the flow of money you settlement on the whole but more so. Were. And and well. It's true. That the problem is this with the with the debt ceiling. You know you know if a government entity be it federal state or local. But does pay its debt. That it promised to its bondholders. Then. The interest rates go way way. In the old adage and now the rest of the story will be right aqueduct we got to take a break with Ron tocchet give us a call to six donates heavily to Texas and 8770. In this annual Norman and every video. Where backward Ron bush a political analyst and president of Claris research group you know Ron. One of the things the president comes right out of the box and in quality team and begins to criticize Pakistan and you know from a foreign relations standpoint. 2018 in many respects and he you know I have my crystal ball tunnel know that it's going to be. Some and it's going to be any more stable than 27 team. You know wasn't. A tour. It just seems to be it's going to be more of the same with the tweets that are on. And disruption at school out there is as it relates to this and then in how we get to. Equilibrium on a number of these issues is beyond me. You know well you know in the international arena it's it's it's. Possible and they were for life with the window every five minutes you know. So you're never quite know what's going on we have the situation in North Korea which. Potentially most severe problem we. Law or law does always probable what's going on. They'd be good oh we don't know how it all works out. And in throughout the rest of the world their triple ought to lose interest in but. The Gallup poll ask people to predict what they think will happen in 2018. File that. 79%. Think. The year will be troubled year with much international discord. In notably. 90% sale will be peaceful year. Real weird major international disputes. So laws so that gives you an indication that the American people. Or expecting trouble. On the international force this year. And I think when you add to it the issue. The embassy in Jerusalem. In all of the major areas especially as it relates to. Muslim influence countries. This is a significant a lot of discord. That the United States is actually. Participated in not to say that if right now at this it is wrong but it it's there. And it's seems that. It's just creates this in you know. Environment issue is not stable by any stretch of the imagination and will continue to present challenges for this administration. And obviously give fodder to the Democrats as it relates to their approach to these foreign relations. Sure that's right and and you know until the problem that there of course president trump chances that he he enjoyed reading from yeah. On these issues and so tweets about well. And and in talked to a number foreign policy experts and some of them LB that's actually helping. Because it is air force leaders. So why so they never wanted to take chances. With the United States is that they'll trust would trump would do. Well the other thought that the point when you're dealing with more stable countries that outlawed it can be a big problem. Because if they don't feel that they can trust the US trust agreed and so that things could change in the of the in the you know five seconds it takes to send out a week. There that becomes probable so we'll have to see how that works. And we'll have to see. How pro what that there should go see it was separate politics before he was there for government before. He's been president now for almost year so it'll be interest think it's pretty what lessons he's cooler it is first year Paula and the second year. It's foreign policy would be toppled on. Do you think that there's a possibility. Of there there could be some political warming. Between the two parties in congress this year understanding the breadth and depth of all of the issues at their face. Now I don't think so I think both. Parties or for battle in November. You know in the open impose you know all of us House of Representatives has elected a third of the senate. About three fourths of the governors around the country so it's a big year. I think Democrats see it as the year of resistance. The year that they will those elections that they will. Will feel the emperor has no clothes the Republican absolutely a player. Oh will agree to work for record to contain their losses. And if showed that that the politics of of Donald Trump that the Republican congress. Really. Being accepted by most Americans so so there's the Big Apple Yuri may. Either wit that you could still have areas. Working together he could have. But we talked about possibly integration summit. You know before they. On. Infrastructure that's something that. We haven't talked about yet but it's probably the biggest enemy. Campaign promise that the trump made outside the building 00 Mexico's that. There is yet to be dealt with. Will probably be dealt with this year. You know when we talk about infrastructure it's obvious it was a huge political promise campaign promise made by it but trop and now the Democrats have started to. Criticize him for not really putting forth. A plan or any semblance. Strategy on how to go about doing that and I think is going back to what you said earlier. I think this is going to be domestic shock and off. Throughout this entire year leading up to the mid terms I would agree with you a 100% I don't see any warming. At all I think this is going to be complete discourse in just. Blow everything up they can blow up. Jail yacht and a suspect we're gonna see that and I think that's going to be the big trend that doesn't mean. They're not a big deal to talk about cooperating here and there but but eventually. That this thing will blow to pick up. I was reading an article of some of the former aides to Harry read in Olympia Snowe and others and are saying. All of them basically saying the same thing I can't imagine that it's gonna happen that they that they get as. Anything on on a number of these issues brought Ron thank you so much every new year and really appreciate your time. You're joining us stay with us we wanna hear from you 260187. Latest Noual Norman. We're back to we've been talking about whether or not do you think this is a linchpin here for president trump in the Republican controlled congress and on a per ready must opinion poll 74% of the respondents say yes we want to hear commute to use excel one except your text Texas said he 78 sounding. You know we're just talking Iran tocchet and Rondo made the observation that. You know this particularly year leading up into the November elections what we elected in the house and a good percentage of the members of the San gotten it and also a number of governors throughout the country. That this is going to be a incredibly politically do this year and you think about all of the big issues that we have to deal with you wonder. Why do we find ourselves in this situation. I wanna know which you thinking about this particular thing. Why is it that it ends up being about the Democrats and Republicans and not really about the issue so to speak. On so many different fronts I've said this before the best and the worst thing about this country's a two party system. We can reach compromise when we actually. Absolutely have to do it the worst part about it at its all about control. And we have all of these prussian pressing issues give you one for example there are only four. Other countries. That I have hired debt burden than the United States. For in the entire world. Japan. 240%. Debt to gross domestic product Greece 180%. Debt to GDP. Italy 133%. Debt to GDP. And Portugal 125%. Debt to GDP. According to play Wall Street Journal article the US stands at a 108%. Of debt. To gross domestic product Greece Italy and Portugal have had to bail out their banking systems. And Japan is sitting and staring a very stagnant economy. In the face not knowing what to do next. We have this issue these issues where. We've got the budget but he reconciliation issue in January 19 coming up we're gonna have to readies. This sequestered caps. Because were not able to meet the financial obligation. That we have. And here we are our leaders are sitting there staring mid term elections and that's all they seem to be concerned about. We have disaster relief that is billions of dollars short in appropriation. We know that that's facing us. We have this situation with the doctor dreamers and expires on March 5. We have legitimate issues surrounding chain migration where they're not your pro wall anti wall whatever it may be we need to deal with that obviously. The that the debt ceiling. In all of this coupled with. Big a Gallup poll that says 79%. Of Americans believe that we're in for a very troubled years a lot of international discord. From a foreign policy standpoint. But we have all of these issues and yet. Yet. The eye on the ball is all about the November elections. On a folks from being something just doesn't seem right with. That we ought to be thinking a little bit more out of the box we ought to have a little bit more control about destiny. That label of the as everybody wants to play it out to be. Because we are finding ourselves in a very dangerous predicament went only four other countries in the world. Have a greater debt to GDP. Ratio. Than we do when that it's not a good thing where you have more debt. It's a hundred houses a 180%. Of GDP. So for every dollar of GDP we have a dollar a vote debt. So that that's not a good thing and we need to get our hands around this and we need to. Figure out wondering what we're gonna do and it can't always be about revenue enhancement and heck it's gonna have to be. About cost and expenditure control. And yet nobody really wants to talk about these issues because we are in a political season. This year. We wanna hear from you 260187. To give us a caller Texas setting 78 semi will go to the talk lines right out of the brightness and you'll Norman on debit Dario. We're back you were talking about the issues that are facing congress this year and 2018 and under peroni most opinion poll do you think it is linchpin year for president trumpeter Republican controlled congress. 74% of the respondents say yes we won't hear from you 260187. Your give us a Texas said he 7870. There element on attacks on a lot of people saying taxcut for big business just added one point five trillion dollars to the debt remember that. The proposal. Is talking about GDP growth. And that they feel like that they're going to be able to sustain growth for appeared to Taiwan no one knows no one has that crystal ball no one knows for sure that's what the thought process is that they're going to. Reinvest the tax savings into. Jobs and in which will boost spending. Domestically not government spending. Private sector spending which would have stimulate the economy. Ramel and also that historically the way we stimulated the economy in the United States prior to the bank failures was with housing starts and and we would relaxing underwriting criteria and things of that nature and we've not been able to do that. In the most recent years because of a number of changes. Regulatory and otherwise that don't allow that to happen let's go on one we'll talk to JR uptown what's gone on jail or. Hey good morning listen in on mine elect says Christmas. Good field trying to get mine to work actually. I. Am candles on the technologies so fortunate. Or babysitters one of the young and lineage and it will open. I got my four year old granddaughter trying to help Leo and so she knows more than. The go ahead and it's gonna launch aid. Yeah I don't you talk about the role that there should land. You know they just ten assists this tax bill and you know look I'm going to be fortunately tax bill. What can hire Kitna. About fifty belt and our tax cut and people so we should be clearly a huge deficit well. I can I can get money back and still think that there's billows and for the United States I mean another one point 77 and trillion in debt. You know and and they're saying this is a jobs bill there's not going to be any jobs created by the state George Bush. Slashed tax on which people you know what ten years ago or 1215 years ago when he was in office how many jobs are created not. Actually lost jobs. RW you mark my words were on the court today four point 54 point sevens and isn't in a year. It's gonna be about the same. Is it easier jobs created in this is all about payback to wal street. And it's learning what were what way to countries on him in office I think immigrants. Really need to take control of the senate and the house put a check on him. Well but you know the thing is is that what what do they propose. And I try to be as balances I can and in my view then all of this what have they propose that's going to be too terribly different as it relates to the outcome at the process but the outcome. I haven't seen it. Well you know it it's easy to be yeah. Some continue to hear almost. George Bush's economy and Obama to come. And you tell me which what was better. Well that there were pros and cons to both. Right I mean and there's so many ways to dice these things up I mean he gets to the point of almost being ridiculous but the fact is and I agree with you. There's the crystal ball's not there we don't know whether or not it that spend is gonna actually happen as are his. As a result of the tax cuts we do know like you pointed out that when it was done before. They they took the benefit of their own their balance sheet. And they really didn't reinvest in the company they didn't grow there there own little micro economy. We didn't see the trickle down the ripple effect of of the benefit that will that was there. Four corporate taxes now having said that. This is and much more permanent reproach but we still don't know I I would agree with you I hope it works. It needs to work because at a hundred per 180%. Debt to GDP. We're going down a real slippery slope that we're not going to be able to get out. And we're gonna have other countries owning our debt. And owning us and we're starting to see that already would you agree. So yet but we're both personal and Kirk I think they'll still don't bring in billions of dollars months. That these wars that that people have been that don't get we get people. You know troops in Afghanistan Middle East we you know we're just leading money. And the world land and lately you know you know atrocities and it's gonna cut funding to these countries and the like yeah and guess what. Russia is gonna feel the bully China has been a billboard you can you give them money because you want access not give them money at the goodness your heart. You'll just think about this one issue and it in in this kind of brings it all home for me. The continuing resolution that expires on on a budget on January 19. If they don't do something to avert a government shut down the government shutdown cost the economy six point five. Billion dollars every week last. So when you begin and I think gone along the lines JR which are saying is these numbers are real one thing about math and has no emotion. You know it it it is what it is. And when you start staring these numbers in the face such as this it begs collaboration. And bags of compromise it begs of leadership on both sides of the aisle. To come together to try and resolve. These issues and that's what I've I don't see it and because we're in the mid terms it's seems to me that it's going to be even more to this and as opposed to trying to work something out. Yeah I agree I agree I saw the. Thank you are literally appreciate it we'll be right back thank you see you too will be right back we wanna hear from you 26018 somebody give us a call. 8787070%. Of the people say yes this is a linchpin year for president trump. In a Republican controlled congress stay with this. We're back there we're talking about whether or not you think. This 2018 will be a lynch being you're from president trumpet her Republican controlled congress 72% of the respondents say yes you know one of the early issues that comes up is at the Republicans back and right before the break passed a bill. To increase defend Serb military spending by 650. Billion dollars through September 30 2018. And the Democrats liberals firms a line that every dollar increase military spending must be met by an equal increase in domestic spending. That all plays into this sequester in you heard. Mr. tocchet talked earlier that they were gonna have to raise the capsule in this sequester because. If they didn't. And they would be increasing this debt ceiling. They're not allowed to use actually make that spend. So we're have yet another. Situation it's going to be impacted which is going to be military spending and also what was pointed out on this to push it it's on result also was the Children's Health Insurance Program commonly known as chip. Where nine million children uses. Program to meet their medical cost. And right before the break there was three billion. That was placed in in there aren't as a temporary solution. And you know that there's yet another situation drive and a problem with this sequestering and pushing to. The need in order to increase the sequester caps. Going in to 2018. And lot of this has to be resolved. The spring. Which means about six months just prior to the mid term elections not to belabor that point but here we go again. We're right on the eve of this in this is what's driving these issues back and forth between the Democrats and the Republicans and trying to gain control. Of congress one way or the other in in very much influencing the way that they're thinking about these ultimate issues. You know when you begin to look at the laundry list of all of the issues there there there its economy gets a little scary. About getting your hands around all of these individual issues. And that's why has congressman's police the other day going back to doctor will we have a vote up or down no it's going to be part of at least it at a minimum. Of an overall immigration reform bill. And I suspect that it's going to be tied into something else so we're not going to be even really be able to figure out what a lot of these votes are truly going to be about. Which is one of the things that we hear from you on the listening audience that frustrates you. Very very much. So anyway in the next hour we're going to be talking to Kristian garic Indy elevator and hopefully we're going to be talking about something that's good that's gonna happen for the saints on Sunday afternoon as say play the Carolina Panthers. And McConnell look at the L issues season to determine whether or not we feel like it was a good season for VO issued tigers will be right back give us a call.
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